National-scale risk mapping and modeling for invasive forest pests: Related work and additional publications


Other work related to this project includes:


Spatio-temporal analysis of the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus) invasion in the southeastern U.S.:

  • Koch, F.H.; Smith, W.D. 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis of Xyleborus glabratus (Coleoptera: Ci[u]rculionidae: Scolytinae) invasion in Eastern U.S. forests. Environmental Entomology. 37(2): 442-452. (PDF)
  • Koch also wrote a chapter on the redbay ambrosia beetle for the 2007 FHM National Technical Report. It expands on themes in the Environmental Entomology article.


Work with Bill Smith and Steve McKelvey of St. Olaf College, MN, on a linear network model for the movement of potentially infected nursery stock in the U.S.:

  • McKelvey, S., F.H. Koch, and W.D. Smith. 2008. Predicting movement of nursery hosts using a linear network model. Frankel, S.J.; Kliejunas, J.T.; Palmieri, K.M. (tech. coords.) Proceedings of the Sudden Oak Death Third Science Symposium, March 5-9, 2007, Santa Rosa, CA, pp. 249-256. PSW-GTR-214. (PDF)
  • Koch and Smith were also cooperators on McKelvey’s Evaluation Monitoring (EM) project that expanded the software to include an improved user interface and a number of map outputs. A summary of the research was included in the 2009 FHM National Technical Report (in press). A manuscript has also been submitted to the journal Natural Resource Modeling, and is currently under review.


Together with scientists from APHIS and NC State University, Koch developed national-scale risk map products for a recently identified plant pathogen, Phytophthora kernoviae. These risk maps were rolled into the USDA’s “national recovery plan”, a new effort called for by a Presidential Directive on Homeland Security.

  • Benson, M., K. Ivors, E. Fichtner, M. Garbelotto, D. Rizzo, S. Tjosvold, E. Hansen, J. Parke, C. Hong, G. Chastagner, S. Jeffers, J. Woodward-Williams, S.H. Kim, K. Britton, G. DeNitto, S. Frankel, F. Koch, J. Micales, S. Oak, N. Grunwald, F. Martin, N. Shishkoff, K. Smith, P. Tooley, T. Widmer, R. Bulluck, G. Burnett, L. Ferguson, G. Fowler, L. Garrett, J. Jones, R. Magarey, B. Randall-Schadel, K. Cardwell, M. Draper, and T. Chand-Goyal. Recovery plan for Phytophthora kernoviae, causing bleeding trunk cankers, leaf blight and stem dieback in trees and shrubs. National Plant Disease Recovery System (NPDRS) disease-specific document. (PDF)
  • Koch also co-authored a chapter on Phytophthora kernoviae for the 2008 FHM National Technical Report (in press).


Together with scientists from APHIS, NC State University, Michigan State University, the Canadian Forest Service, and the University of Florida, Koch is currently working on representation of human-mediated dispersal pathways in a pest risk mapping context.

  • This “pathways team” has developed an automated system to map potential human-mediated dispersal pathways based on international and domestic cargo/commodity flow databases. This is being applied for a list of APHIS’s “top 50” invasive pests: Magarey, R.D., D.M. Borchert, J.S. Engle, M. Colunga-Garcia, F.H. Koch, and D. Yemshanov. 2011. Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States. EPPO Bulletin 41:46-56. (PDF)
  • Koch also worked with some team members to predict alien forest insect species establishment rates for urban locations in the U.S. and Canada, based on global trade and domestic freight traffic data as well as historical species occurrence records: Koch, F.H., D. Yemshanov, M. Colunga-Garcia, R.D. Magarey, and W.D. Smith. 2011. Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many? Biological Invasions 13:969-985. (PDF)
  • A complementary manuscript looking at trade-related entries of alien forest insect entries into Canada was published: Yemshanov, D., F.H. Koch, M. Ducey, and K. Koehler. 2012. Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada. Biological Invasions 14:797-812. (PDF)  


Together with Yemshanov, Koch has begun to develop a modeling approach for reverse pathway analysis using National Recreation Reservation Service (NRRS) campground visitation data. The basic concept is that if a forest pest is found at a given campground, then the modeling approach can be applied to the visitor data in order to estimate probabilities regarding where (i.e., in which populated area) the pest likely originated. Data preparation and model construction is ongoing. This model is intended to complement pest risk maps, offering forest health decision makers and personnel another source of information about where detection surveys or other activities might prove most cost-effective. Recently, Koch co-authored a paper characterizing general patterns of camper travel and firewood transport as observable from the NRRS visitation data: 

  • Koch, F.H., D. Yemshanov, R.D. Magarey, and W.D. Smith. 2012. Dispersal of invasive forest insects via recreational firewood: a quantitative analysis. Journal of Economic Entomology 105(2):438-450. (PDF)


The International Pest Risk Mapping and Modeling Workgroup includes researchers from APHIS, the USDA Forest Service, and several other countries (Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand). Koch co-authored a manuscript with workgroup members that outlines basic theories behind pest risk maps and offers a series of recommendations for improving the underlying science:

  • Venette, R.C.; Kriticos, D.J.; Magarey, R.; Koch, F.H. [and others]. 2010. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement. BioScience. 60(5):349-362. (PDF)


Additional workgroup products are forthcoming.


Other publications related to this project include:

  • McShea, W.J., W.M. Healy, P. Devers, T. Fearer, F.H. Koch, D. Stauffer, and J. Waldon. 2007. Forestry matters: the current decline of oaks will impact wildlife in hardwood forests. Journal of Wildlife Management 71(5):1717-1728.
  • Koch, F.H., and W.D. Smith. 2008. Mapping sudden oak death risk nationally using host, climate, and pathways data. Frankel, S.J.; Kliejunas, J.T.; Palmieri, K.M. (tech. coords.) Proceedings of the Sudden Oak Death Third Science Symposium, March 5-9, 2007, Santa Rosa, CA, pp. 279-287. PSW-GTR-214. (PDF)


Updated January 2012

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