2008 Research Highlights
Comprehensive Tools Assess Stress on Southeastern Water Supply
Water resources are critical to the sustainable development of the water-rich southeastern U.S. However, comprehensive tools to conduct the assessment of long-term impacts of changes in climate, population, and land use at the regional scale are lacking. Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center researchers are studying methods to fully budget annual water availability for water supply and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) was developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watersheds in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population change model were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020.
Scientists found that population growth greatly stressed the water supplies of metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and across Florida. Predicted land use changes (e.g., urbanization) will have little effect on water quantity and water supply-water demand relationships. In contrast, climate change had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas, where water stress was historically highest for the study region.
The integrated modeling tool will be useful for water resources managers developing long-term water supply plans and policymakers considering appropriate actions to manage multiple stresses from climate change, population growth, and economic development across the southeastern U.S.
Contact: Ge Sun, research hydrologist, (919) 515-9498, gesun@fs.fed.us
Partners: U.S. Forest Service, Southern Research Station – Forest Economics and Policy Unit, Coweeta Hydrologic Lab, and Center for Forested Wetlands Research; Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Top photo by Larry Korhnak, www.interfacesouth.org; Center photo by Keith Weller, USDA Agricultural Research Service, www.bugwood.org; Bottom photo by Brad Haire, University of Georgia, www.bugwood.org.
