2008 Research Highlights
Can Tree Species Stand Up to Climate Change?
Climate change poses a severe threat to the viability of several forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift their ranges to more favorable environments. Species with limited ranges may be particularly at risk, as may those currently threatened by exotic insects and diseases. Scientists with the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center will use spatial models of future environmental conditions to predict the location and quality of habitat for forest tree species under different climate change scenarios. They also will determine where each species, within its current range, is most susceptible to extinction as a result of climate change, by measuring the distance to the nearest favorable future habitat. Researchers will then work with Forest Service forest geneticists to assess the risk of extinction for each species based on the results of the spatial analysis and on existing knowledge about the biology and genetic diversity of the species.
The results of this work will be valuable for scientists and policymakers attempting to determine which forest tree species and populations should be targeted for conservation efforts in the face of climate change. The results will also be useful for land-use planners and conservation organizations interested in identifying geographic locations that could be preserved as important future habitat for at-risk tree species.
Contact: Bill Bechtold, Forest Health Monitoring team leader, (828) 257-4357, wabechtold@fs.fed.us
Partners: North Carolina State University; U.S. Forest Service, Southern Research Station
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Photo by Steven Katovich, USDA Forest Service, www.bugwood.org
