PARTNERS: North Carolina State University (NCSU) Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, USDA Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET)

SUMMARY: Researcher has been collaborating with FHTET, Bill Smith (EFETAC Biometrician), and other scientists to develop national-scale risk map products for several non-native invasive forest pests, including the sirex woodwasp (Sirex noctilio), the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus), and Phytophthora disease of alders (P. alni). The researcher's interest in mapping the risk of a pest species being introduced into previously uninfested regions has allowed much of the work to focus on addressing gaps in current knowledge about pathways of long-distance pest spread and pests’ subsequent access to host species in both developed and undeveloped landscapes. Gaps are being addressed through exploration and derivation of spatial and statistical data sets on international trade, pest interceptions, commodity and freight analysis, transportation corridors, landscape connectivity, disturbance, and other environmental factors, many of which are designed for different purposes and so must be adapted to a forest pest context. Work with FHTET has also extended to development and implementation of methodologies for tasks related to risk assessment, such as the design of national pest detection surveys and spatio-temporal modeling of pest range expansion. Furthermore, all of these efforts have informed additional work on other invasive pests, especially sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum) and a recently emerged threat, the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus).   

With support from EFETAC (and in collaboration with Bill Smith and others), research is being done on the representation of uncertainty in forest pest risk maps, with a particular emphasis on how to take typically non-spatial techniques for uncertainty management and place them in a spatial context. Current research topics include the visualization of uncertainty in spatial data sets used as input parameters for risk maps, techniques for error/uncertainty propagation, and multi-model approaches to inference that are intended to minimize uncertainty. Special interest exists in info-gap decision theory and similar conceptual approaches that consider whether the degree or level of uncertainty present in a risk assessment would be significant enough to change decisions made based on the primary results of the assessment.

STATUS: Ongoing

PROGRESS: Collaboration with FHTET has resulted in national-scale risk map products for Orthotomicus erosus (Mediterranean pine engraver) that are near completion. This project included the researcher's specific contributions regarding some potential forest disturbance factors:

• The development of a method to map drought conditions (both single-year and multi-year droughts) from current and historical climate data (PRISM)
• The development of a wall-to-wall map of ozone bioindicator injury

Together with Bill Smith and FHTET staff, the researcher has begun initial work on national-scale risk map products for Asian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar Asian biotype).

With FHTET and Canadian Forest Service, the predicted spread of sirex woodwasp (Sirex noctilio) in eastern North America over the next 30 years has been modeled.

With John Coulston (FIA-SRS), Bill Smith, and Frank Sapio (FHTET), a paper has been published in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research that describes how to determine optimum sample size as well as the distribution of survey hexes/points in order to stipulate freedom from a particular insect or disease based on a risk map for the pest:

• Coulston, J.W.; Koch, F.H.; Smith, W.D.; Sapio, F.J. 2008. Invasive forest pest surveillance: survey development and reliability. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38: 2422-2433. (PDF)

Other work related to this project includes: 

• Spatio-temporal analysis of the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus) invasion in the southeastern U.S.
• A paper about this invasion has been published in Environmental Entomology:
• Koch, F.H.; Smith, W.D. 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis of Xyleborus glabratus (Coleoptera: Ci[u]rculionidae: Scolytinae) invasion in Eastern U.S. forests. Environmental Entomology. 37(2): 442-452. (PDF)
• The researcher also wrote a chapter on the redbay ambrosia beetle for the FHM 2007 National Technical Report (in review). It expands on themes in the Environmental Entomology article.
• Ongoing work with Bill Smith and Steve McKelvey of St. Olaf College, MN, on a linear network model for the movement of potentially infected nursery stock in the U.S.
• A paper describing the initial version of network modeling software has been published:
• McKelvey, S., F.H. Koch, and W.D. Smith. 2008. Predicting movement of nursery hosts using a linear network model. Frankel, S.J.; Kliejunas, J.T.; Palmieri, K.M. (tech. coords.) Proceedings of the Sudden Oak Death Third Science Symposium, March 5-9, 2007, Santa Rosa, CA, pp. 249-256. PSW-GTR-214. http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr214/psw_gtr214_249-256_mckelvey.pdf
• The researcher is also a cooperator on McKelvey’s Evaluation Monitoring (EM) project that is expanding the software to include improved user interface and a number of map outputs. A journal manuscript is pending.
• Together with scientists from APHIS and NC State University, national-scale risk map products for a newly identified pathogen, Phytophthora kernoviae, have been developed. These risk maps have been rolled into the USDA’s “national recovery plan”, a new effort called for by Presidential Directive on Homeland Security.
• Benson, M., K. Ivors, E. Fichtner, M. Garbelotto, D. Rizzo, S. Tjosvold, E. Hansen, J. Parke, C. Hong, G. Chastagner,  S. Jeffers, J. Woodward-Williams, S.H. Kim, K. Britton, G. DeNitto, S. Frankel, F. Koch, J. Micales, S. Oak, N. Grunwald, F. Martin, N. Shishkoff, K. Smith, P. Tooley, T. Widmer, R. Bulluck, G. Burnett, L. Ferguson, G. Fowler, L. Garrett, J. Jones, R. Magarey, B. Randall-Schadel, K. Cardwell, M. Draper, and T. Chand-Goyal. Recovery plan for Phytophthora kernoviae, causing bleeding trunk cankers, leaf blight and stem dieback in trees and shrubs.  National Plant Disease Recovery Plan (NPDRS) disease-specific document, draft under review (as of July 2008)
• The researcher has also written a chapter on Phytophthora kernoviae for the 2008 FHM National Technical Report (in preparation/review).
• Together with scientists from APHIS, NC State University, and Michigan State University, the researcher is currently working on an automated system to map potential human-mediated dispersal pathways based on international and domestic cargo/commodity flow databases. This is being applied for a list of APHIS’s “top 50” invasive pests. 

Additional publications related to this project include: 

• McShea, W.J., W.M. Healy, P. Devers, T. Fearer, F.H. Koch, D. Stauffer, and J. Waldon. 2007. Forestry matters: the current decline of oaks will impact wildlife in hardwood forests. Journal of Wildlife Management 71(5): 1717-1728. 
• Koch, F.H., and W.D. Smith. 2008. Mapping sudden oak death risk nationally using host, climate, and pathways data. Frankel, S.J.; Kliejunas, J.T.; Palmieri, K.M. (tech. coords.) Proceedings of the Sudden Oak Death Third Science Symposium, March 5-9, 2007, Santa Rosa, CA, pp. 279-287. PSW-GTR-214. http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr214/psw_gtr214_279-287_koch.pdf
  

LINKS: 

NCSU Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources

Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET)

CONTACT: Frank Koch, NCSU Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, fkoch@fs.fed.us or 919-549-4006